29 Kasım 2009 Pazar

Statistical Paradox: Distortion of Truth

In a world of risk and uncertainty, statistical falsies present a great danger to our society. We must spend a great time to sort out statistical paradoxes (statistical falsies) that present us by economic agents (individuals, firms and governments)...! The open society or a great society does not mean the paradoxal society; statistically fallacy society in discussion and interpretation of the present day reality.
  1. This essay critically discusses statistical paradoxes arising (knowingly or unknowingly) from individual, firm and government) that presenting the data information in order to obtain the maximum outcome in the economic activity.
  2. Statistics is defined as follows: Statistics is the science of collecting, organizing or describing, and ultimately drawing conclusion from the data. It is a major branch of mathematics; and so it uses a simplified mathematical language to present more complex ideas.
Statistics can be used (knowingly and unknowingly) in distorting the truth (conclusion that follows from premises). When the presented the data and hence asked to draw a conclusion from it we should concern with the reliability of the source, with the techniques used to collect the data, and with the way in which the data presented.

These considerations must be addressed when we are evaluating the presented data. We should not be sceptical of all data, but we should learn to challenge statistical data that see, read and hear...!

Statistics is helpful in providing a powerful interpretation of reality but also can be used to distort our understanding. Sometimes, statistics present a paradox where as stated the simplicity, directness, and completeness are its strengths, but also these qualities are its weaknesses...!
When we are determining the validity of the data and the reliability of their sources we should ask the following questions:
  • Is there reason for the source to biased in reporting the result?

The field of advertising is extremely complex. Manufacturers are constantly dreaming up schemes to market their product. A very effective method of advertising is to quote statistical data similar to the “Four out of five dentists recommend" and "100 % protective against the H1N1 flu virus". When the toothpaste and soap (hand-wash) manufacturer declares its products superior, then we must question the motive?

  • What procedures was used to collect the data ?

In this, we should also ask: were the data obtained by an independent party? Was a scientific procedures used to collect the data? Did the data present the intended population? Was the sample size adequate? Were the data contrived from the other information?

Each of these questions must be answered when we examine the origin of the data. The aim is to ensure that the data are collected by a party will not gain monetarily by the result. A scientific procedure is used in designing an experiment or conducting a survey sample.
"Duracell Batteries Last 5 times longer"-Longer then what? "100 % protective against the H1N1 flu virus"-where the data comes from ?

If we read more closely, we can see that "Duracell brand batteries last up to five times longer then regular carbon batteries". Were the tested batteries of comparable price ? We all know that alkaline batteries last longer then carbon batteries. Were the Duracell batteries also carbon?

  • Are the data reasonable; would you normally expect such result ?
  • Are the data useful, relevant, and so reported properly?
  • Are the data-or-graphs misleading the truth?

In order to avoid or lessen damage caused by false conclusions, we should learn to challange statistical data that we see, read and hear.