8 Mart 2009 Pazar

Exchange Rate Crises in Emerging Markets: Turkey

Bir sonraki krizin nereden ve ne zaman geleceğini bilemeye biliriz. Fakat, bir sonraki krizin kapının hemen arkalarında bir yerde heyecanla sırasını beklediğini çok iyi bilmeliyiz.

Ekonomik çöküşün (bankacılık krizinin) birikimli bir süreç özelliği vardır. Bir noktaya kadar izin verildiğinde ekonomik kriz bir süre sonra kendi gelişmesinden güç alır ve büyük boyutlara ulaşır...Bankacılık krizinin, sorumluluğu ve liderliği üzerine almaya istekli bir veye daha fazla önemli kişinin varlığına ne kadar bağlı olduğunu gösterir.

The market turbulence (exchange crisis) in the Turkish economy caused by the risk that posed by exchange rate pegs, weaknesses in political environment and the banking system, and the dangers of explosive debt dynamics. The fact that Turkey adopted an unusual sort of "crawling peg exchange rate regime" as part of an IMF inflation stabilization program contributed the crisis of November 2000, and the crisis of February 2001 to occur. The crisis was misdiagnosed in November 2000, making it almost inevitable that a second crisis would occur in February 2001.


Uncertainties about Turkish Politics leads to big changes in interest rates when the economics do not change at all. The government faced the dilemma that banks could be driven to bankruptcy as a result of defending the exchange rate with a tight monetary policy. In a bad political environment with the inflationary cycle and so controversial "crawling peg exchange rate" regime the crisis worsened, leading to the erosion of the capital base, the financial fragilities, and finally a low level of economic growth and development in the Turkey.