THE CASE FOR STATE OF IGNORANCE
Risk and Olasılık:
"Until we can distinguish between an event that is truly random and an event that is the result of cause and effect, we will never know whether what we see is that we'll get, nor how we got what we got from a decision we have made, though we do not know for certain what the outcome will be".
Risk Yönetimi:
"The essence of risk management lies in maximizing the areas where we have some control over the outcome while minimizing the areas where we have absolutely no control over the outcome and the linkage between effect and cause is hidden from us”.
Page 197 – Chapter 12, “The Measure of Our Ignorance” From “AGAINST THE GODS”.
Sonuç: Risk/Risk Yönetim
We have absolutely no control over the outcome and the linkage between effect and cause is hidden from us. Hence, the measure of risk is based on our total ignorance.
PROOF (STATE OF IGNORANCE)
According to the Laplace and Bayes formulation:....if evet occuring given all those already observed, then pnL()∼1. Hence, the estimate for ... N P always ( )≈( )()=1 1, , and our state of ignorance remains complete.
Tüm araştırma ve deneyimlerimizin iki zıt kutupta oluştuğunu bilmekteyim: planlı determinist ve düzenli sistemler. Bunların ise düzensiz ve tahmin edilemez sistemlerin rastgele (stokastik) dünyası arasında gidip geldiğini çok iyi bilmekteyim.
RISK AND UNCERTAINTY
The level of uncertainty (from deterministic knowledge to total ignorance) is due to the imperfection of our knowledge. In the face of deep uncertainty, the measuring risk is based on our total ignorance. This is all about unknowns and uncertainties that the effect and cause is hidden from us.
OPERASYONEL RİSK-1RISK AND UNCERTAINTY
The level of uncertainty (from deterministic knowledge to total ignorance) is due to the imperfection of our knowledge. In the face of deep uncertainty, the measuring risk is based on our total ignorance. This is all about unknowns and uncertainties that the effect and cause is hidden from us.
OPERASYONEL RİSK-2
OPERASYONEL RİSK-3
OPERASYONEL RİSK-4
The reasons for the banking failure of so many banks will
not be discussed in this paper, but the major causes were connected lending,
inadequate capital, and in some cases fraud by bank owners and employees. Fraud
by bank owners and/or employees means the operational risk. The operational
risk involves breakdowns in internal controls and corporate governance.
Such breakdowns can lead to financial losses through error, fraud, or failure
to perform in a timely manner or cause the interests of the bank to be
compromised in some other way, for example, by its dealers, lending officers or
other staff exceeding their authority or conducting business in an unethical or
risky manner (Şafaklı, 2005; Bektaş, 2002).